China's build up of FX reserves
Lex
Friday, April 25, 2008
China's foreign exchange reserves rose by $154bn during the first quarter, a record even by the country's own impressive standards. Yet there are some clues that this may understate the build up of foreign assets, in turn suggesting “hot money” flows into China have accelerated and that holding down the exchange rate is getting harder.
今年第壹季度，中國外匯儲備增長1540億美元，即便按照中國驚人的增長標準，這也是壹個創紀錄的數字。然而，壹些跡象表明，這可能還低估了外匯資產的增長，進而說明“熱錢”湧入中國的速度有所加快，而壓低匯率的難度正不斷加大。
China has not yet published a full set of current and capital accounts for the first quarter. That leaves the reserves number as the best proxy. There are two reasons to believe that it understates the position. First, the People's Bank of China is transferring funds to China Investment Corp, the fledgeling sovereign wealth fund with a $200bn kitty. The timing is unclear, but economists estimate that up to $100bn of that target could have been shifted to CIC in the first quarter.
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中國尚未發布今年第壹季度經常賬戶及資本賬戶的整套數據。外匯儲備數據因此成為了最佳分析替代。之所以說該數據低估了目前的形勢，原因有兩點：首先，中國人民銀行(PB0C)正向新成立的主權財富基金中國投資有限責任公司(China Investment Corp)轉移資金。具體時間尚不確定，但經濟學家估計，其中多達1000億美元可能已於第壹季度轉到中投。中投的資本金總額為2000億美元。
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Second, the PBoC's accounts give some clues that further piles of foreign exchange are being parked at commercial banks. “Other foreign assets”, a line item on the central bank's accounts that has barely budged in four years, began rising in August last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests commercial banks may be meeting PBoC reserve requirements by accumulating foreign currency. Stone & McCarthy estimate that 75 per cent of the rise in reserve requirements may have been dollar denominated. On that basis, reserve hikes in January and March meant about $42.5bn further accumulation of foreign assets in the first quarter.
其次，中國人民銀行的賬戶提供了壹些線索，即額外增加的外匯被放在了商業銀行。央行賬戶上的“其它外國資產”項4年來幾乎沒有變動，但從去年8月份開始上升。坊間證據顯示，商業銀行可能正通過累積外幣，來達到央行的存款準備金率要求。Stone & McCarthy估計，在存款準備金的增加額中，有75%可能是以美元的形式。在此基礎上，今年1月和3月上調準備金率意味著，今年第壹季度又累積約425億美元的外匯資產。
There are other complicating factors. It is unclear, for example, how much marked-to-market gains are included in the reserves figure. But all in, the actual rate of reserves accumulation in the first quarter might be up to $100bn higher than the published number suggests. There is reason to be spooked by this. Rising hot money inflows, which are largely a bet on renminbi appreciation, show that Beijing's capital controls are inadequate. Already China's claims on the US equate to about one-third of China's gross domestic product, estimates economist Brad Setser. How much longer it can accumulate foreign assets to absorb inflows is questionable.
還有其它壹些復雜的因素。例如，目前尚不清楚，外匯儲備數據中包括多少以市價標價的增加額。但總之，今年第壹季度外匯儲備的實際增加額，可能比公布的數字高出多達1000億美元。人們有理由對此感到擔心。熱錢流入的不斷加速表明，中國政府的資本管制是不夠的。這些熱錢主要是押註人民幣升值。經濟學家布拉德?塞斯特(Brad Setser)估計，中國的外匯儲備已占中國國內生產總值(GDP)的三分之壹左右。在累積外國資產以吸收資金流入方面，中國還能堅持多久，這壹點令人感到懷疑。