Emerging markets
新興市場
The decoupling debate
脫鉤之辯
Mar 6th 2008 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com
Could recession spread from America?
蕭條會從美國蔓延開來嗎？
“DECOUPLING” is the source of a great deal of controversy. Economists argue about whether or not emerging economies will follow America into recession. The most pessimistic claim that as economies have become more intertwined through trade and finance, this should make business cycles more synchronised, not less. The slide in emerging stock markets on Wall Street’s coat-tails appears to endorse their view. Yet recent data suggest decoupling is no myth. Indeed, it may yet save the world economy.
“脫鉤“是當前壹個引發了相當多爭議的話題。經濟學家們正在就新興經濟體是否會步美國的後塵走上衰退之路辯論不休。其中最悲觀的看法是隨著經濟體之間通過貿易與金融的結合日趨緊密，全球經濟波動的周期將更趨向於同步。新興股市緊隨華爾街大幅下跌似乎印證了這壹觀點。但是近期的數據表明脫鉤壹說並非空穴來風，事實上這壹進程還有望在將來挽救世界經濟。
Decoupling does not mean that an American recession will have no impact on developing countries. That would be daft. The point is that their GDP-growth rates will slow by much less than in previous American downturns. Most enjoyed strong growth during the fourth quarter of last year, and some speeded up, even as America’s economy ground to a virtual halt and its non-oil imports fell.
如果說脫鉤意味著發生在美國的蕭條不會令發展中國家遭受池魚之殃，這完全是無稽之談。關鍵在於這些國家的GDP增幅受到的影響較之以往會小得多。它們之中的絕大多數去年第四季度的增長勢頭強勁，有壹些甚至在加速增長，盡管在此同時美國經濟幾乎完全停滯不前，除原油以外的進口全面下降。
One reason is that while exports to America have stumbled, those to other emerging economies have surged (see chart 1). China’s growth in exports to America slowed to only 5% (in dollar terms) in the year to January, but exports to Brazil, India and Russia were up by more than 60%, and those to oil exporters by 45%. Half of China’s exports now go to other emerging economies. Likewise, South Korea's exports to the United States tumbled by 20% in the year to February, but its total exports rose by 20%, thanks to trade with other developing nations.
原因之壹就是在對美出口步伐放緩的同時，這些國家對其他新興經濟體的出口有了長足增長（見圖1）今年壹月份中國對美出口的增幅僅為5%（以美元計算），但對巴西、印度和俄羅斯的出口額增加了60%以上，而對石油輸出國的出口增長為45%。現在對其他新興經濟體的出口占到了中國出口總額的的半壁江山。同樣，今年壹到二月韓國對美出口下降了20%，但其出口總量反而增加了20%，這全要拜與其他發展中國家貿易之賜。
圖1 投之以桃…
A second supporting factor is that in many emerging markets domestic consumption and investment quickened during 2007. Their consumer spending rose almost three times as fast as in the developed world. Investment seems to be holding up even better: according to HSBC real capital spending rose by a staggering 17% in emerging economies last year, compared with only 1.2% in rich economies.
第二個因素就是很多新興市場的國內消費與投資在2007年加速了。這些國家消費支出的上揚速度幾乎是發達國家的三倍，投資方面的表現則更為突出：據匯豐銀行統計，去年新興經濟體實際資本支出增長率達到了驚人的17%，而在發達國家這壹數字僅為1.2% 。
Sceptics argue that much of this investment, especially in China, is in the export sector and so will collapse as sales to America weaken. But less than 15% of China’s investment is linked to exports. Over half is in infrastructure and property. It is not just China that is building power plants, roads and railways; a large chunk of the Gulf’spetrodollars are also being spent on gleaming skyscrapers and new airports. Mexico, Brazil and Russia have also launched big infrastructure projects that will take years to complete.
對此抱有懷疑態度的人會聲稱這些投資中的大部分，尤其是中國的投資，集中在出口領域，結果會隨著對美出口的減退化為烏有。但是實際上中國的投資中與出口相關聯的不到15%。過半的資金都投在了基建與地產上面。而且不是只有中國在興建電站、公路和鐵路；海灣國家的石油美元也有很大壹部分變成了光鮮的摩天樓和嶄新的機場。墨西哥、巴西和俄羅斯同樣上馬了為期數年的大型基礎建設項目。
The four biggest emerging economies, which accounted for two-fifths of global GDP growth last year, are the least dependent on the United States: exports to America account for just 8% of China’s GDP, 4% of India’s, 3% of Brazil’s and 1% of Russia’s. Over 95% of China’s growth of 11.2% in the year to the fourth quarter came from domestic demand. China’s growth is widely expected to slow this year but to a still boisterous 9-10%.
新興經濟體中的四強貢獻了去年全球GDP增長的五分之二，而它們正是同類之中對美國依賴最小的：對美出口只占中國GDP的8%，印度GDP的3%，巴西GDP的3%和俄羅斯GDP的1%。中國去年到第四季度為止所取得的11.2%的增長中有95%以上來自於內需。普遍預期中國今年的增長勢頭會放慢，但仍能達到堪稱活躍的9-10%。
American downturns have often caused the prices of oil and other raw materials to slump, but this time China’s surging demand is propping up prices and fuelling booms in Brazil, Russia and the Middle East. Brazil’s exports jumped by 26% in the year to February. In turn, if prices stay strong, so will China’s exports to commodity-producing countries. A sharp slowdown in China would hurt them more than an American recession will.
美國的經濟衰退過去通常會造成原油和其他原材料價格低迷，但如今來自中國的飛速增加的需求正在拉高油價，助長了巴西、俄羅斯和中東的經濟繁榮。巴西今年壹至二月的出口猛增了26%。相應的，如果原料價格居高不下，中國對原材料生產國的強勁出口勢頭也就能保持下來。對這些國家來說，比起美國的蕭條來，中國的經濟急剎車造成的傷害還要嚴重壹些。
The popular argument that business cycles should become more synchronised in a globalised world rests on an out-dated impression that poor countries mainly export to rich ones. Instead, emerging economies’ trade with each other has risen faster and now accounts for over half of their total exports. Emerging markets as a group now export more to China than to the United States (see chart 2).
許多人做出全球化的世界裏的經濟周期性波動會趨向同步這壹判斷，其實是基於壹個過時的印象，即窮國的出口主要流向富國。實際上新興經濟體之間的貿易增長更為迅速，現在已經達到了它們總出口額的壹半以上。如果把新興市場視為壹個整體，那麽它對中國的出口已經超過了對美國的出口（見圖2）。
圖2 報之以李…
Some contend that this mainly reflects imports of intermediate goods into China for assembly; the finished goods are then exported to America and so will be hurt by slower growth. There is some truth to this, although Asian exports to China are increasingly driven by China’s own domestic demand.
有人會辯解說這主要是中國進口中間產品用於組裝的體現，最後的制成品還是要銷往美國，從而會受不景氣的市場拖累。這在某種程度上是事實，不過亞洲的對華出口正日益為中國的內需所驅動。
Another reason why globalisation and decoupling can co-exist is that opening up economies has not only boosted poor countries’ trade, it has also spurred their productivity growth and hence domestic incomes and spending.
全球化與脫鉤進程能並行不悖的另壹個原因，就是經濟上的開放在繁榮窮國的貿易的同時也促使他們提高勞動生產率，於是國民收入與消費便隨之水漲船高。
A severe recession in America could still have a nasty impact on the developing world if commodity prices collapsed and if it caused stockmarkets to fall more steeply, depressing global consumer and business confidence. A sharper fall in the dollar could also further squeeze emerging economies’ exports.
當然，如果美國的嚴重衰退引發原材料價格崩盤，或是帶動股市進壹步暴跌打擊全球消費者與投資人的信心，發展中國家肯定會損失慘重。美元加速貶值也會導致新興經濟體的出口進壹步縮水。
But for perhaps the first time ever, developing countries would be able to make full use of monetary and fiscal policy to cushion their economies. In the past, when they were net foreign borrowers, capital inflows tended to dry up during global downturns as foreign investors shunned risky assets. This forced governments to raise interest rates and tighten fiscal policy. Economies with large external deficits are still vulnerable, but most emerging economies now have a current-account surplus and large foreign reserves; many have a budget surplus or are close to balance, leaving ample room for a fiscal stimulus if necessary.
但是，發展中國家將會得以充分利用貨幣與財政政策呵護他們的經濟，這很可能是前所未有的。過去它們是凈債務國，在全球衰退來臨時外國投資者對風險資產回避會造成這些國家的資金來源枯竭，迫使它們的政府提高利率並實行緊縮財政政策。現在那些背負高額對外赤字的經濟體在這方面仍然很脆弱，但是大部分新興經濟體目前都擁有經常賬戶盈余和巨額外匯儲備；其中不少還有預算結余，或者至少收支基本相抵，這樣就為在必要情況下采取財政激勵政策留下了足夠的空間。
Perhaps the best support for decoupling comes from America itself. Fourth-quarter profits of big companies, such as Coca-Cola, IBM and DuPont, were better than expected as strong sales growth in emerging markets offset a sharp slowdown at home. Bits of American business are rising above their own economy. With luck, the world economy can rise above America’s.
也許支持脫鉤進程最好的實例來自美國國內。像可口可樂、IBM和杜邦這樣的大公司第四季度的利潤好於預期，就是以在新興市場良好的銷售勢頭彌補了本土市場的疲軟。美國經濟中的壹部分已經走到了其他部分的前面。如果壹切順利的話，世界經濟也將同樣走到美國經濟的前面。