In recent years, our country commodity futures market has made rapid development, but because of the short development time, current our country commodity futures market system and structure has yet to be further improved, the commodity futures market efficiency and speculative larger, commodity futures market risk is also big, therefore the study of commodity futures market risk early warning is particularly important. In this paper, with reference to existing commodity futures market risk early warning index system on the basis of the theory, combined with China's commodity futures market development, to build a consistent index, the index of consumer confidence, stock price change rate, the rate of change of volume changes positions, ten index such as rate based on commodity futures futures market risk early warning index system, and the Zhengzhou PTA commodity futures as an example, the use of factor analysis for empirical research, and uses Logistic model empirical study show that, by the construction of the commodity futures market risk early warning index system is effective according to the empirical results, and proposes relevant policy recommendations.
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